4th Quarter 2012 Macroeconomic Forecast, Philadelphia Fed

Many professional forecasters contribute to the Philadelphia Fed's survey. (See the list below.)

They are saying we'll likely have very slow but steady growth. Of course, that's assuming the government and Fed don't do anything extraordinary.

Forecasters Hold the Line on Their Estimates for Growth

The outlook for the U.S. economy is little changed from the survey of three months ago, according to 39 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. …

The estimates for unemployment also changed little from the projections in the last survey. …

On the employment front, the forecasters have made small revisions to their estimates of the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 148,700 jobs per month this quarter and 127,400 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment are almost identical to those of three months ago. The projections suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 155,600 in 2012 and 143,300 in 2013, as the table below shows.

View the full forecast: Fourth Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters, Release Date: November 9, 2012 – Philadelphia Fed.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia thanks the following forecasters for their participation in recent surveys:

Scott Anderson, Bank of the West (BNP Paribas Group); Robert J. Barbera, Mount Lucas Management; Christine Chmura, Ph.D. and Xiaobing Shuai, Ph.D., Chmura Economics & Analytics; Gary Ciminero, CFA, GLC Financial Economics; Julia Coronado, BNP Paribas; David Crowe, National Association of Home Builders; Rajeev Dhawan, Georgia State University; Shawn Dubravac, Consumer Electronics Association; Michael R. Englund, Action Economics, LLC; Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale; Timothy Gill, NEMA; James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch; Keith Hembre, Nuveen Asset Management; Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.; IHS Global Insight; Peter Jaquette, PIRA Energy Group; Fred Joutz, Benchmark Forecasts and Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington University; Kurt Karl, Swiss Re; N. Karp, BBVA Compass; Walter Kemmsies, Moffatt & Nichol; Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz & Associates, Inc.; Thomas Lam, OSK Group/DMG & Partners; L. Douglas Lee, Economics from Washington; Allan R. Leslie, Economic Consultant; John Lonski, Moody’s Capital Markets Group; Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC; Dean Maki, Barclays Capital; Jim Meil and Arun Raha, Eaton Corporation; Anthony Metz, Pareto Optimal Economics; Ardavan Mobasheri, AIG Global Economic Research; Michael Moran, Daiwa Capital Markets America; Joel L. Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors; Mark Nielson, Ph.D., MacroEcon Global Advisors; Michael P. Niemira, International Council of Shopping Centers; Luca Noto, Anima Sgr; Brendon Ogmundson, BC Real Estate Association; Martin A. Regalia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce; David Resler, Nomura Securities International, Inc.; Philip Rothman, East Carolina University; Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; John Silvia, Wells Fargo; Allen Sinai, Decision Economics, Inc; Tara M. Sinclair, Research Program on Forecasting, George Washington University; David Sloan, Thomson Reuters; Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D., University of Central Florida; Constantine G. Soras, Ph.D., CGS Economic Consulting; Neal Soss, Credit Suisse; Stephen Stanley, Pierpont Securities; Charles Steindel, New Jersey Department of the Treasury; Susan M. Sterne, Economic Analysis Associates, Inc.; Thomas Kevin Swift, American Chemistry Council; Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs; Lea Tyler, Oxford Economics USA, Inc.; Jay N. Woodworth, Woodworth Holdings, Ltd.; Richard Yamarone, Bloomberg, LP; Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics

This is a partial list of participants. We also thank those who wish to remain anonymous.


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