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- Housing Recovery Seems Still on Track – NYTimes com
The housing market, one of the main drivers of the economic recovery, continues to gain strength despite the drag of rising mortgage rates and other economic headwinds, but some analysts are worried that it may slow in the months ahead.
"While recent results have been considerably better than those seen earlier in the cycle, and also better than we had anticipated, we have not given up on the argument that a large supply overhang of existing homes (factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time," Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist for MFR, wrote in a note to investors.
Asked if the slowdown in growth was alarming, Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who helped develop the home price index, said no. "I'm not worried," he said in an interview with CNBC. "I think that would be a good thing."
His greater worry, he said, was "more about a bubble — in some cities, it's looking bubbly now."
Still, Mr. Shiller said, even the bubbliest markets were still well below their peak.
Other analysts raised the same point. Prices in San Francisco are still only at 2004 levels, cautioned Steve Blitz, chief economist for ITG Investment Research. "For those who bought and still hold homes in 2005, '06 and '07, they may still be in a negative equity position, depending on the terms of their mortgage," Mr. Blitz wrote. "Don't let those double-digit year-over-year percentage gains bias opinion to believe all is all right.".
2004 was already well within the forming bubble. Let's make sure the same or similar dynamics aren't allowed to have their unbridled heads.
- China's Big Currency Strategy | The Diplomat
By promoting the RMB as a global currency and establishing itself as a major player in global financial markets, China is using its financial clout as a power base in a bid to raise its influence and authority as a major global power. This complements China's existing efforts to expand its global influence through military modernization and trade expansion.
Will China pull it off? Is China growing as much as it claims? Is a significant amount of China's growth hollow or wasted on speculative ventures that will never pan out: are based on corruption and shoddy lending, etc.?
Read the source article … http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/23/chinas -big-currency-strategy/?all=true
- House Prices in India | Indian Real Estate Prices
Written before the taper delay was announced but still a valuable read:
India's property market is set for tough times. Residential property prices are falling in more cities than they are rising in real terms (given India's high inflation, it is important to distinguish nominal price rises from real price rises).
The new governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, has added to the pressure by hawkishly raising key interest rates, in the face of an already weak economy.
Read the source article … http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/ India/Price-History
- Macquarie Sees Record Global Fund Flows Into Australian Property – Bloomberg
Are they buying high?
Australian commercial property offered total returns of 9.1 percent in the year to June 30, about 80 percent of that from income and the rest from price growth, according to the Property Council/IPD Australia All Property Index.
That compares with total returns of 5.5 percent on U.K. properties in the 12 months to August, 7.2 percent in Canada in the year to June and 4.5 percent for Japanese properties in the year ended May 31, according to Investment Property Databank Ltd. indexes.
Australia's 10-year government bonds are offering yields of 3.95 percent. U.S. Treasuries (USGG10YR) yielded 2.7 percent yesterday.
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