News: Real Estate, Risk, Economics. May 6-7, 2014

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Table of Contents
(Click to sections below.)

1) The Changing Landscape of Rentals | RISMedia

2) 1 Million Thermostats Recalled For Fire Risk | TIME com

3) BoE eyes moves to cool housing market – FT com

4) The Realities of Real Estate: What to think about when buying waterfront property – CapitalGazette.com: Realities Real Estate

5) Tight inventory, high demand send real estate prices higher… | www palmbeachdailynews com

6) The Economist explains: Thomas Piketty's "Capital", summarised in four paragraphs | The Economist

7) Fast-moving wildfire burns at least 20 homes in Oklahoma – CNN com

8) Britain's economic growth is not a sign that austerity works – The Washington Post

9) [Highly Recommended] Should Governments Run Surpluses? – YouTube

10) Luxury Homes Are A Ticking Time Bomb In Real Estate

11) Offering service as preventive maintenance | Property Management Minutes

12) One in three Americans are spending too much on rent

13) Vogel: Affordable Housing Policies | Vermont Public Radio

14) Multifamily Monday: 48,000 Applications for 98 Apartments – Real Estate Bisnow (NY)

15) S'moretgage Launches To Bring Real-Time Mortgage Data To Real Estate Investors | TechCrunch

16) West Valley real estate offers investment opportunity

17) History Says Housing Market Must Go Higher | Tallahassee com Community Blogs

18) Hamptons Real Estate Roundtable: Why Great Photos Will Sell Your House – Dan's Papers

19) DoubleLine's Gundlach Recommends Betting Against Housing – Bloomberg

20) Bank of America quants issue mortgage rate warning | HousingWire

21) Banks in U.S. Eased Commercial Loan Policies, Fed Says – Businessweek

22) Ackman Says Fannie Mae Shares Could Be Worth $47 – Bloomberg

23) Better Job Growth Isn't Triggering Better Apartment Performance in Jacksonville – YouTube

  1.    The Changing Landscape of Rentals | RISMedia

    Based on MBA's National Delinquency Survey, the foreclosure rate has skyrocketed from around 1 percent in late 2005 to around 4.3 percent today. With more than a million homes still in the national foreclosure inventory, that number is expected to rise as many of those will be converted to rentals in the ensuing years.

    This trend is expected to continue, with five to six million new renter households being created within the next 10 years, likely caused from low inventories of homes available and tight credit conditions, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

    Add your comment.


  2.    1 Million Thermostats Recalled For Fire Risk | TIME.com

    (NEW YORK) — More than 1 million thermostats are being recalled because the batteries can leak and cause a fire.

    The thermostats are made by White-Rodgers, but some have different brand names printed on the front, including ComfortSentry, DICO, Emerson, Frigidaire, Maytag, Nutone, Partners Choice, Rheem, Ruud, Unico, Water Furnace, Westinghouse and Zonefirst.

    Add your comment.


  3.    BoE eyes moves to cool housing market – FT.com

    A speech from deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe on Thursday describing housing as the brightest warning light on the BoE's dashboard triggered speculation that its Financial Policy Committee could take steps as soon as its June meeting to slow the market down.

    George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said that given government policy is actively promoting housing activity — particularly via its Help to Buy scheme — a damping move by the BoE now could seem like "giving with one hand while taking with the other".

    Add your comment.


  4.    The Realities of Real Estate: What to think about when buying waterfront property – CapitalGazette.com: Realities Real Estate

    If the house is high up, the good news is you won't need to worry about getting flooded out; the bad news is that it can sometimes be a long, steep walk down to your dock. For a lot of people, that might be just fine. However, for those of us who might be pondering a hip or knee replacement, those stairs might be too much. In some cases, a waterfront might have a tram as a means for overcoming that obstacle, or you could put one in.

    Add your comment.


  5.    Tight inventory, high demand send real estate prices higher… | www.palmbeachdailynews.com

    During the worst years of the recession, real estate agents dreamed of the day when better-quality homes would again sell for $1,000 per square foot. That threshold appears to have been reached this season; expect $1,200 per square foot to become the new standard. New homes will likely sell for even more. And although prices for lakefront, oceanfront and newly constructed residences have yet to consistently hit pre-recession levels, the gap continues to narrow.

    Add your comment.


  6.    The Economist explains: Thomas Piketty's "Capital", summarised in four paragraphs | The Economist

    IT IS the economics book taking the world by storm. "Capital in the Twenty-First Century", written by the French economist Thomas Piketty, was published in French last year and in English in March of this year. The English version quickly became an unlikely bestseller, and it has prompted a broad and energetic debate on the book's subject: the outlook for global inequality. Some reckon it heralds or may itself cause a pronounced shift in the focus of economic policy, toward distributional questions. This newspaper has hailed Mr Piketty as "the modern Marx" (Karl, that is). But what's it all about?

    Add your comment.


  7.    Fast-moving wildfire burns at least 20 homes in Oklahoma – CNN.com

    (CNN) — A fast-moving wildfire destroyed at least 20 homes near Guthrie, Oklahoma, on Sunday — one of several fires to break out amid unseasonably high temperatures and windy conditions in the state, officials said.

    The Guthrie blaze was about four miles long and up to a mile wide, and was burning a largely rural area, Logan County Sheriff's Office Chief Deputy Richard Stephens told CNN.

    Add your comment.


  8.    Britain's economic growth is not a sign that austerity works – The Washington Post

    … many have seized on Britain's strong performance as evidence vindicating the austerity strategy that the country has followed since 2010 and rejecting the secular-stagnation idea that lack of demand constrains industrial growth over the medium term.

    Interpreting the British experience correctly is important because of the political stakes in Britain, the impact on future British policy and, most important, the effect on economic policy debates around the world. Unfortunately, properly interpreted, the British experience refutes austerity advocates and confirms Keynes's warning about the dangers of indiscriminate budget-cutting in the midst of a downturn.

    Add your comment.


  9.    [Highly Recommended] Should Governments Run Surpluses? – YouTube

    Steve Keen, one of our favorite economists:

    At a talk entitled "The Age of Entitlement is Over?" at the Northside Forum (http://northsideforum.org.au/), after recommending George Monbiot's excellent article on grouse (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisf…) I used the Open Source program Minsky (https://sourceforge.net/p/minsky/) to model what can happen when a government runs a permanent surplus. The result is not what advocates of government surpluses expect.

    Add your comment.


  10.    Luxury Homes Are A Ticking Time Bomb In Real Estate

    Has our economy growth six thousand percent? No!

    Has our population growth six thousand percent? No!

    So then why has the luxury homes market grown by nearly that much?

    The simple answer is low mortgage interest rate[s].

    So what is going to make this time bomb explode? Rising mortgage interest rates.

    When rates return to normal (or heaven forbid … well above normal), the buyer pool for our largest homes will shrink to a level far smaller than the inventory of these homes in Tallahassee.

    It will take many years of population growth to consume the plethora of McMansions that were built to satisfy the "low interest rate" demand that has existed for more than 10 years, but sustained over the past five years with historically low rates.

    Add your comment.


  11.    Offering service as preventive maintenance | Property Management Minutes

    Unit inspections are often viewed by residents as an intrusion into the privacy of their home. Could this annual, semi annual or quarterly event be viewed as an apartment service appointment?

    Explaining to residents its time to service the furnace, water heater or air conditioner in their home offers a positive explanation for this necessary activity.

    Add your comment.


  12.    One in three Americans are spending too much on rent

    One out of three Americans now live in a housing market where rent for a three-bedroom home eats up more than 30% of the monthly median income, the traditional threshold for affordability, according to RealtyTrac. And in some cities, residents are doling out a much larger percentage of their paychecks.

    Add your comment.


  13.    Vogel: Affordable Housing Policies | Vermont Public Radio

    There's a housing crisis in Vermont. According to a recent study, more than a quarter of Vermont renters pay more than 50% of their gross income in rent. Another study indicates that Vermont must build 21,000 affordable housing units just to meet the current need. And most alarming, more and more Vermonters are living in motels and even in their cars.

    Add your comment.


  14.    Multifamily Monday: 48,000 Applications for 98 Apartments – Real Estate Bisnow (NY)

    It's more likely Derek Jeter will win rookie of the year than it is for a New Yorker in need to get affordable housing. Capital One's Laura Bailey tells us Broadway Housing Communities' 124-unit development in Harlem's Sugar Hill drew 48,000 applications for the 98 affordable units.

    On Thursday, Mayor de Blasio will announce his plan for 200,000 units of affordable housing in NYC. That follows Community Preservation Corp's commitment this month of $200M for 3,500 affordable units statewide. And yet demand is rising. Another affordable project Laura is involved in drew over 40,000 apps recently. That has become typical, says Laura (above), adding that there always was a supply-demand imbalance, but NYC no longer is treading water.

    Add your comment.


  15.    S'moretgage Launches To Bring Real-Time Mortgage Data To Real Estate Investors | TechCrunch

    S'moretgage wants to bring real estate data for pros and consumers alike. The company launched a preview version today with data pertaining to New York City. According to S'moretgage, the information will include "individual mortgage-level detail on loans recorded in New York City," including such data points as a loan's interest rate and the date when it began.

    Add your comment.


  16.    West Valley real estate offers investment opportunity

    It is a good time to look west to invest in real estate, either to live in or invest in, according to a property manager and a real-estate agent.

    "Prices are still good and have stopped climbing right now," said Ron Thornblade, with the Sun City office of Coldwell Banker Property Management Division. "Rentals are doing very well with what has happened in the past. All the people who lost their homes are renting, old and young."

    Add your comment.


  17.    History Says Housing Market Must Go Higher | Tallahassee.com Community Blogs

    Reversion to the mean suggests that house sales will go up another 35% or so in the coming years, as that is what our market considers "normal." So even as the current buyer activity softens, know that we have plenty of upside left in the Tallahassee real estate market.

    Add your comment.


  18.    Hamptons Real Estate Roundtable: Why Great Photos Will Sell Your House – Dan's Papers

    Good advice:

    … some real estate agents take pictures too far by Photoshopping images to depict property that does not accurately reflect what exists, in violation of their license law. Therefore, photos are terrific but should not be manipulated without a proper disclaimer and should only be used by a real estate agent with the 'written permission from the copyright holder' pursuant to applicable regulations in New York State."—Andrew Lieb, Esq., MPH, Lieb at Law, P.C.

    Add your comment.


  19.    DoubleLine's Gundlach Recommends Betting Against Housing – Bloomberg

    Gundlach [Jeffrey Gundlach, manager of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund] said there will be more supply of housing when investment firms, who together with cash buyers have supported the property market, liquidate their holdings. Baby boomers selling their houses will also add to supply, he said.

    "The argument of pent-up demand is wrong," Gundlach said.

    Add your comment.


  20.    Bank of America quants issue mortgage rate warning | HousingWire

    Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are making an interesting argument on whether or not the Federal Reserve should consider putting a temporary halt on the taper.

    "Despite speculation running high on a halt in the taper, none of the above is likely to change the Fed's intent to continue to taper straight into the fall. Hindsight may prove that the decision to taper was premature," they added.

    As our readers know, we've felt all along that the taper is premature. We don't think they will continue on into Fall if they have their wits about them, unless the economy really picks up.

    Add your comment.


  21.    Banks in U.S. Eased Commercial Loan Policies, Fed Says – Businessweek

    Stepped-up lending by small banks signals the economy is improving, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a May 1 speech.

    "After several years of reduced lending following the recession, we are starting to see slow but steady loan growth at community banks," Yellen told an Independent Community Bankers of America gathering in Washington. "While this expansion in lending must be prudent, on balance I consider this growth an encouraging sign of an improving economy."

    Add your comment.


  22.    Ackman Says Fannie Mae Shares Could Be Worth $47 – Bloomberg

    Bill Ackman, who runs the $15 billion Pershing Square Capital Management LP, said that Fannie Mae (FMCC) and Freddie Mac will probably soar because there's no way to replace the mortgage guarantee companies.

    Our readers know that we think the full-privatization schemes offered up so far are inadequate.

    Add your comment.


  23.    Better Job Growth Isn't Triggering Better Apartment Performance in Jacksonville – YouTube

    Jacksonville's economy is starting to generate jobs at a good clip again, but that hasn't translated to meaningfully better performance in the apartment sector. Jacksonville's apartment market remains lackluster by most metrics due to competition from single-family and from new apartment supply.

    Add your comment.


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