Richard Koo Debunks Deleveraging Almost Done

Reality check?: The fundamentals are still not good. Deleveraging (paying down debt) continues. Companies are saving cash, not spending it. This all possibly adds up to that one ought to invest in residential income property (real estate), to be a landlord, because people will be renting longer than many analysts are projecting, which real-estate analysts are not really “seeing” both the data and policy/legal hurdles.

Yves Smith:

We have stagnant wages and short job tenures and concerns that demographics will no longer drive growth in the US, combined with the fact that the BIS has found that household debt to GDP ratio of over 85% are associated with a negative impact on economic growth, and we are still above that level:

And that’s before you get into the issue of the composition of debt: a lot of the deleveraging has been involuntary (foreclosures and bankruptcies) and has been partially offset by rising levels of student, which is more pernicious than credit card or mortgage debt, since it can’t be discharged in bankruptcy, and is accumulated at the beginning of an adult’s income-earning years.

Koo makes a different point:…

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