News Alerts, Sept. 11, 2013, Morning Edition, #RealEstate +

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  1. Emerging markets are crumbling like BRICs – Outside the Box – MarketWatch Emerging markets are crumbling like BRICs - Outside the Box - MarketWatch

    To restore growth, emerging markets switched to development models more reliant on credit. Double-digit annual credit growth drove economic activity in China, Brazil, India, Turkey and many economies in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe.

    The credit-driven revival of emerging economies entailed domestic credit expansion, directed by governments to finance investment and consumption growth. This was augmented by foreign capital inflows, driven by the perceived superior economic fundamentals of emerging markets.

    …driven by hot money that wouldn’t have existed had the US done fiscal money creation instead. The federal government could have spent bond-free new money directly into the US economy rather than the Fed creating trillions via its policies. Ben Bernanke wanted more fiscal action but probably not without bonds to match. We’d rather have done without the added debt.

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  2. The Future of the U.S. Labor Force and Housing | Housing Industry Forum The Future of the U.S. Labor Force and Housing | Housing Industry Forum

    … structural changes in the economy from 2012 to 2025, including retiring baby boomers and a downward shift in immigration, suggest slower labor force growth and a reduced demand for housing.

    The robust housing numbers seen in today’s market have more to do with limited supply and less to do with strong demand, said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.

    “Demand has picked up a little bit, but mostly it’s been constraints on the supply side,” Duncan stated.

    “Right now, baby boomers have started retiring and that will be a big driver of structural trends over the next 10 to 20 years as baby boomers age out of the work force,” Bivens [“Josh Bivens, director of research and policy at the Economic Policy Institute”] said. “Immigration is a huge issue, especially for the longer term.”

    The Social Security Administration forecasts 600,000 to 900,000 new immigrants will come into the United States per year. Bivens said this “implies a shrinking share of new immigrants into the work force, which has not been consistent with most of the past century.” During fairly heavy immigration inflows, those from the late 1990s and again from the mid 2000s, well over 1 million people per year were immigrating to the United States, he said.

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  3. BOJ Beat: Five Takeaways From Kuroda News Conference – Japan Real Time – WSJ News Alerts, Sept. 11, 2013, Morning Edition, #RealEstate +

    While the BOJ stood pat on policy Thursday, there is speculation that it may take additional easing action next spring to mitigate the impact of the sales tax hike on personal consumption. Mr. Kuroda said the bank was ready to take action should it affect its goal of achieving 2% inflation. “(If it) makes it difficult for us to achieve the 2% price stability target, we will take necessary measures in response.” He didn’t specify what measures he had in mind.

    The sales-tax increase has not been decided yet.

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