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- BBC News – The trouble with Chinese data
This problem is understated.
In June, China’s customs administration cracked down on false trade invoices that disguised money flows designed to get around capital controls.
It ended up reducing China’s trade figures.
Now, 28 companies in Luliang county in Yunnan province have reported industrial output that was more than double what their actual production was last year.
According to Xinhua, the companies defended themselves and said that local officials had induced them to do so in exchange for loans from state-owned banks.
In any case, these are hardly new complaints about the accuracy of Chinese statistics.
Before becoming premier, Li Keqiang had questioned the reliability of Chinese GDP. He was reported to have said to look instead at three direct indicators of economic activity: cargo volume on railways, electricity consumption, and bank loans.
The recent wave of action fits with the overall push by the new Chinese leaders to crack down on fraud and corruption. For Premier Li, it is an attempt to increase confidence in the Chinese economy.
Read the source article … https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23982997
- Global and euro imbalances: China and Germany
We analyse global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms in both countries expanded the effective labour force, restrained wages, shifted income towards profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, both economies’ current account surpluses widened before the global financial crisis, and that of Germany has proven more persistent as domestic investment has remained subdued.
Read the source article … https://www.bis.org/publ/work424.htm
- BBC News – China says Yunnan county ‘faked’ economic data
This reflects fundamental dishonesty at the local governmental level and within the private sector. Ethics has been severely under stressed during the economic-privatization phase of China’s “revolution.”
Read the source article … https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23968472
The following is why we think the Fed should not taper any time soon.
Asset values cannot be inflated forever. Something has to give. Now bonds are sliding, taking down bond funds with them, and our antsy investors are dumping their shares, and bond funds are forced to sell more bonds just when other investors are reluctant to jump into the fray to buy them, and just when the Fed is contemplating pulling up its stakes too, and prices slide further. The giddy “wealth effect” that the Fed printed into existence evaporates, and people end up poorer, not only by the money that they thought they had and that they then spent, but also by the amount that their investments declined in value.
It should also be pointed out that Ben Bernanke called upon the Congress to up fiscal spending rather than relying upon the Fed to ramp up the economy single-handedly. Rather than doing that, the Congress did the sequester and increased the payroll tax (backwards acts during a recession).
Read the source article … https://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/9/5/bonds-bleed-largest-bubble-in-history-unwinds-but-the-great.html
- Household formation lags, could impede a ‘sustained recovery’ | Inman News
The rate of household formation is dropping, a trend that might hamper a “sustained recovery,” according to an analysis from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies using U.S. Census data. Estimates for household formation in 2012 were revised downward 12.5 percent to 857,000, and the trend through the second quarter of 2013 suggests that households are forming at an even lower rate of 746,000 per year.
It’s a vicious cycle. The lack of formation harms the economy, and the down economy hampers formation.
Read the source article … https://www.inman.com/wire/household-formation-slags-possibly-preventing-a-sustained-recovery/