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- The Wisdom of Crisis Prevention by Mehmet Simsek – Project Syndicate
…the situation remains worrying. With the outbreak of the global crisis, major advanced economies employed unconventional monetary policies, leading to massive capital flows to emerging-market economies, which lowered borrowing costs and increased access to credit. While emerging-market countries’ public-sector balance sheets are stronger than ever — with low deficits and debt accompanied by large foreign-currency reserves — household and corporate leverage have risen. This has increased the vulnerability of many emerging markets to a sharp reversal in capital flows.
- Construction slowdown on the horizon – Triangle Business Journal
Predictions for the residential and commercial construction markets are being revised downward for the rest of 2013 as markets continue to shift, and early forecasts for 2014 show slower growth than was previously anticipated, according to a new FMI Construction Outlook report.
FMI, a Raleigh-based management consulting firm to the engineering and construction industries, expects spending in construction to grow 7 percent in 2014 to $977 billion from a projected $909.6 billion in construction spending in 2013.
Read the source article … https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/blo g/2013/09/construction-slowdown-on-the-h orizon.html
- Why ‘January Effect’ Has Mortgage Bankers Very Afraid – American Banker
A mountain of regulations set to go into effect in January, the Fed’s mixed signals and fair lending issues topped the list of concerns at a recent mortgage bankers’ risk management conference in Phoenix. American Banker’s Kate Berry, who attended the event, reports.
- The reason for the depth and duration of the downturn is far too simple for most economists to understand | Real-World Economics Review Blog
If we could get trade close to balanced it would raise output to near full employment. We can assume that the gain to GDP will be roughly 1.5 times the increase in net exports, so that an increase in net exports equal to 3.0 percentage points of GDP will raise output by 4.5 percentage points of GDP, filling most of the gap between potential GDP and actual GDP.
There also is an easy way to boost net exports, get the value of the dollar down against other currencies. This makes U.S. goods more competitive in world markets, leading to an increase in exports and a drop in imports.
However a lower-valued dollar is not even an item on the national agenda.
It’s only on the Fed’s agenda to the tune of 2% and that only as a cushion against deflation.
- August 2013 Apartment Market Summary
The summary is loaded. It’s too much to summarize here.
Read the source article … https://axiometrics.com/blog/index.php/a ugust-2013-apartment-market-summary/
- New Rules under Basel III Likely to Affect Commercial Real Estate
The banking sector has provided about half the approximately $3 trillion of outstanding commercial real estate debt, according to Federal Reserve data. However, new Basel III rules released July 2—requiring U.S. banks, savings associations, bank holding companies, and savings and loan holding companies with over $500 million in assets to maintain higher capital levels—may result in allocation of bank capital away from real estate and higher financing costs. As a result, developers may find future projects less attractive.
Read the source article … https://urbanland.uli.org/Articles/2013/ Sep/RubinBaselIII
- The London boroughs where house prices are falling just like the rest of the country | This is Money
London property prices are racing ahead with figures today confirming that the city is skewing averages for the whole country higher – but not all areas of the capital are booming.
It contains an interesting interactive map.
- China home prices rise for 8th straight month
New home prices rose in 69 of 70 major Chinese cities in August from the previous year, official data showed on Wednesday, the same showing as in July, backing the case for more cooling measures from the government.
“The government seems to have tolerated rising property prices and has not rolled out new tightening measures, which, given the importance of the sector to the economy as a whole, may partly reflect the challenge it faces in achieving a 7.5 percent growth target for 2014,” Zhang [Zhiwei Zhang of Nomura] wrote in a note.
Read the source article … https://www.cnbc.com/id/101042326