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- How a shutdown could affect the economy - Sep. 23, 2013
No matter what, it would lower the GDP. It would be exact opposite of what the Fed has been calling for: more targeted fiscal spending during the recovery to bolster the Fed's QE efforts to get the economy humming but not overheating.
Read the source article ... https://money.cnn.com/2013/09/23/news/ec onomy/shutdown-economy/index.html
- Rewriting Textbook Economics by Sylvester Eijffinger and Edin Mujagic - Project Syndicate
We agree with the following:
... the Fed's intention to sustain its monetary stimulus is only temporary; it will follow through on its previous pledge to "reduce the pace of its asset purchases" and ultimately exit QE as soon as sufficient growth is restored. But America's recovery remains anemic by historical standards. Add to that the fact that the interest rate on ten-year US Treasuries spiked after Bernanke announced plans to "taper" QE — rising from 1.6% in May to 2.9% last week — and the Fed is likely to approach its policy reversal with caution.
In fact, the Fed is prepared to expand its QE program if the US recovery falters. Its recent decision suggests that it may already be feeling pressure to do so.
... interest-rates are likely to remain close to zero for years. The Fed does not expect to raise rates until mid-2015, and will do so only if all the stars in the economic firmament align. Moreover, the shift would be very gradual. Even in the unlikely event that the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at every meeting from mid-2015, the rate would stand at only 5% at the end of 2017.
Read the source article ... https://www.project-syndicate.org/online -commentary/the-normalization-of-unconve ntional-monetary-policy-by-sylvester-eij ffinger-and-edin-mujagic
- Chinese growth accelerating, but more unbalanced | MacroBusiness
... while state-owned heavy industry is showing strong growth, the volume of cargo moving through China's seaports, business and leisure travel, property construction activity, and growth in the volume of freight being transported around China, are showing far less promise.
Indeed, Capital Economics believes that the latest rebound closely resembles the pick-up experienced late last year, which fizzled-out sooner than many had hoped.
Read the source article ... https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/09 /chinese-growth-accelerating-but-more-u nbalanced/
- Loan modifications boost the housing recovery | 2013-09-19 | HousingWire
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods recently stated that loan modifications are among a number of factors that are causing delinquencies to decline, which in turn is strengthening the housing market as a whole.
Read the source article ... https://www.housingwire.com/articles/269 51-loan-modifications-boost-the-housing- recovery
- California vacancy levels are falling fast, Western Division Conference attendees say | ICSC: International Council of Shopping Centers
A rebounding housing market is boosting the retail outlook in California, according to attendees at the ICSC Western Division Conference.... San Diego, site of the conference, is at the forefront of the state's retail recovery. Developers are starting to build again to accommodate expansion-minded retailers that are having trouble finding locations, locals say.
An increase in blue-collar jobs is expected to spur even more improvement as retailers serving that population move into empty spaces at strip centers in the city's outlying communities....
Read the source article ... https://www.icsc.org/press/california-va cancy-levels-are-falling-fast-western-di vision-conference-atte
- London Whale scandal to cost JP Morgan $920m in penalties | Business | theguardian com
JP Morgan's admission of wrongdoing is a major victory for the US securities and exchange commission.
JP Morgan has agreed to pay about $920m in penalties to US and UK regulators over the "unsafe and unsound practices" that led to its $6.2bn London Whale losses last year.
John Coffee, Adolf A Berle professor of law at Columbia Law School, described the fine as "somewhat less than satisfactory".
"The victims of this enormous loss were the shareholders of JP Morgan and the remedy is for those shareholders to pay $900m-plus in fines. It's not just adding insult to injury, it's adding injury to injury.
He said no senior bank official had been charged with wrongdoing and described the those indicted so far as "relatively small fish".
"Ideally the regulators should fine actual individuals who are responsible. But time and again the SEC settles for large penalties and gives virtual immunity to some officers."
We understand John Coffee's frustration.
Read the source article ... https://www.theguardian.com/business/201 3/sep/19/jp-morgan-920m-fine-london-whal e
- 4 tips to avoiding commercial lease issues | Investors Beat
Hey, this is someone who didn't forget the insurance. Amazing!
Even in the standard lease there is a section titled INSURANCE where it is the tenant's responsibility to get insurance. The landlord fills in the amount they require. First, there needs to be follow up. An insurance binder or proof of insurance needs to be held by the landlord, however, even better is for the landlord to be named as an Additional Insured.
When a landlord is named as Additional Insured, the landlord will be contacted when there is a change in the policy and if the tenant stops paying the insurance. Therefore if there is a loss, then there are no surprises. The landlord knows who the insurance company is and can make a claim.
Also, in regards to insurance, make sure your tenants are getting the right kind of insurance. For example, if there are storefront windows, then glass coverage should be a requirement.
Read the source article ... https://www.investorsbeat.com/four-tips- to-avoiding-commercial-lease-issues/
- Yellen Would Bring Tougher Tone to Fed - WSJ com
Janet Yellen, the lead candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, brings a demanding and harder-driving leadership style to the central bank, in contrast to Mr. Bernanke's low-key and often understated approach.
Ms. Yellen, the Fed vice chairwoman, is highly regarded by many central bank staff members, who call her an effective leader with a sharp mind. But she has clashed with others and left some hard feelings in the wake of those confrontations, according to interviews with more than a dozen current and former staff members and officials who worked with her directly in recent years.
Most agree that Ms. Yellen—who has climbed the ranks from Fed researcher to Fed governor and regional Fed bank president, in between stints outside the central bank—is exacting and exceptionally detail-oriented.
Should the issue be whether the Fed's leader is tough or not or right or not or both? We suggest both and think the leader should be tough (and we haven't seen Bernanke as mushy) and right. We say that regardless of whether we fully agree with Janet Yellen's economic positions or not. One things for certain, she was more right than was Larry Summers.
Read the source article ... https://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 4052702303983904579091521754109480.html