“In thinking about the historical experience of the yield curve, we do have to be cautious about applying it to this current situation. We and other central banks around the world have taken aggressive actions to buy lots of long-term assets, which has arguably pushed down the term premium, or the yield, on 10-year Treasurys,” said Williams. [Source]
That's not something that should be simply dismissed.
Also, there are too many variables at play now, and there's the tariff war with China that's changeable on a whim or to win an election.
We simply don't know how much of a lesson the Fed is willing to have learned either. Will it cave to the bankers cravings for profits and then bailouts, or will it do the right thing and demand fiscal spending, needed spending?
That's far from everything to consider.