Real estate, cybersecurity and other risks, economics, & more: links & commentary for May 14, 2019

China Exporters Reel as U.S. Tariffs Imperil World’s Supply Hub

… exports to the U.S account for around a fifth of China’s total and Deutsche Bank AG estimates that China’s industrial output overall has only a five percent exposure to the U.S. market.

Chinese production serving the rest of the world is five times more important than the supply chain serving the U.S., Deutsche Bank China economist Zhang Zhiwei in Hong Kong said last year. The key issue is whether U.S. tariffs drive out supply chains from China that serve other countries ….


New security flaw in Intel chips could affect millions

They’re not giving out much info on it I suppose to not tell hackers on how to exploit it.

The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust

The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines.

It’s all the more reason to get on with the Green New Deal.

Trump’s Trade War Escalation Will Exact Economic Pain, Adviser Says

“It’s pretty likely that the tariff revenue is going to fall,” Mr. Weinstein of Columbia University said, as firms find themselves unable to shoulder the higher rates and stop importing from China. “We’re going to see a lot of supply chains shifting around.”

That means Chinese companies will also lose out as businesses buy more American-made goods or continue turning to other low-cost producers outside China, like Vietnam and Malaysia.

Look, would it have been a good idea to simply leave China alone and let it do whatever it wants? I don’t think so. In addition, look at all the same people who are complaining now who said the 10% tariffs would cause extreme general/average damage. It didn’t happen.

I think Trump is right to take a longer view of it all. I think the American public should be vastly more patient and stop thinking in terms of yearly quarters.

It’s true that we’ll need to help different people to get through things, but what’s wrong with that? We haven’t been helping each other nearly enough for decades now.

We’re going to be making more things ourselves and buying more from other than China. All things being considered, those are good things on balance.

Speaking of other than China:

Asian Economies Set to Dominate 7% Growth Club During 2020s

India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar and the Philippines should all meet that benchmark, according to a research note Sunday from Madhur Jha, Standard Chartered’s India-based head of thematic research, and Global Chief Economist David Mann. Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire are also likely to reach the 7% growth pace, which typically means a doubling of gross domestic product every 10 years. That’ll be a boon to per-capita incomes, with Vietnam’s soaring to $10,400 in 2030 from about $2,500 last year, they estimate.


Cryptocurrency laundering as a service: members of a criminal organisation arrested in Spain

Honestly, how long is it going to take for governments to shut this whole cryptocurrency thing down? It’s never been any good for anything other than crime.

ADU legislation can move forward after clearing appeal

Single-family zoning in Seattle is currently extremely permissive. While it has height limits (25 to 30 feet), there’s no limit to floor-area ratio (FAR)—that is, the size of the home in relation to the lot—as long as the giant home that results is only one home. Under the legislation, single-family zones could get a FAR limit of .5, so, for example, a single-story house could only have a footprint of half the lot. O’Brien said the council plans to carve out some small exemptions for additions or planned remodels to existing houses, although, since ADUs wouldn’t be included in the FAR limit, homeowners could build in a mother-in-law unit to get around them.

The major idea behind ADU reform is around affordability: ADU reform was among the recommendations of the Housing Affordability and Livability committee (HALA) in 2015, although reforms have been underway since 2014.

They’re going to be rented out. If two are allowed, it will turn the property into a triplex.

The Best Performing Opportunity Zones For Real Estate Investors

The top of the list found Gowanus in South Brooklyn going from having only 0.3% of households earning over $200,000 in 2000 to 21.6% of households reaching that level 17 years later.

Of course, that’s past tense. Some zones that haven’t done well at all yet may still take off.

The Return of Fiscal Policy

… these arguments lead to a straightforward conclusion: in the future, we will have to rely more on fiscal policy and less on monetary policy to achieve stable and equitable growth.